WTO Predicts 40% Trade Boost from AI by 2040

The WTO’s latest forecast suggests that artificial intelligence has the potential to increase the value of international trade in goods and services by almost 40% by 2040. 

The improvements depend on strong policy frameworks and the adoption of technology, with the World Trade Report 2025 predicting that global GDP could grow by as much as 13% under favourable conditions.

Amid increasing complexities in international trade, AI acts as a key enabler by reducing transaction costs, enhancing efficiency, and facilitating broader participation, according to WTO Deputy Director-General Johanna Hill.

Trade acts as a vital pathway for inclusive growth powered by AI, providing access to key inputs like semiconductors, raw materials, and components. The WTO reports that global trade in these AI-related products hit $2.3 trillion in 2023.

AI technologies are transforming trade activities by enhancing supply chain visibility, accelerating border processes, overcoming language barriers, improving market insights, and assisting MSMEs with regulatory challenges.

Digitally delivered services, especially AI, are expected to expand by 42%, driven by decreasing trade costs and increasing demand. As the digital divide narrows by 50% and AI adoption becomes more widespread, incomes in low- and middle-income countries could rise by 15% and 14%, respectively.

The report highlights the need for clear trade rules, noting a rise in restrictions on AI products from 130 in 2012 to nearly 500 in 2024, mainly driven by wealthy nations. Some low-income countries face tariffs of up to 45%, restricting access to AI.

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WTO’s Johanna Hill warned that AI benefits won’t be shared equally due to disparities in digital access and skills. She stressed that inclusive growth needs investments in infrastructure, workforce training, adaptive labour policies, and a stable, transparent trade environment.